Prospector Calculator: A Potential Solution to Reduce Antibiotic Overuse in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

24.02.2025

Prof. Krzysztof Kuziemski from the Division of Pulmonology at the Medical University of Gdańsk, in close collaboration with Marcin Paprocki, M.D., Ph.D. from the Suchanino Medical Clinic in Gdańsk and Szymon Żwirowski, Ph.D. from AstraZeneca, has authored a study entitled The use of the Prospector calculator reduces antibiotic therapy in exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The study has been published in the prestigious Scientific Reports journal (IF = 3.800, MNiSW = 140.000), part of the Nature portfolio. This publication is the fifth most-cited journal worldwide, with significant global impact across science and the media.

Prof. Kuziemski’s primary research focus lies in obstructive lung diseases, particularly asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). COPD is an insidious condition that develops gradually, with smoking being the leading causative factor. The disease is frequently marked by exacerbations, each of which leads to worsening symptoms, declining lung function, reduced quality of life, complications affecting other organs, an increased risk of mortality, and higher treatment costs. The aetiology of COPD exacerbations varies, with data indicating that only 40–60% are of bacterial origin and require antibiotic treatment. However, there is a lack of reliable tools to guide antibiotic prescription in COPD exacerbations. Moreover, a persistent trend of antibiotic overuse exists, regardless of exacerbation type.

The published study explores the application of a novel tool — the Prospector calculator — to aid in determining whether antibiotic therapy is warranted in COPD exacerbations. The use of this tool is expected to reduce antibiotic consumption and promote a more rational approach to COPD exacerbation management compared to standard therapy. According to the researchers, it may also contribute to lowering hospitalisation rates and reducing antibiotic resistance through more judicious antibiotic use. A key aspect of the publication is that the study was conducted in primary care settings, reflecting everyday clinical practice. The study serves as a pilot and underscores the need for further in-depth research on larger patient cohorts.

Prof. Krzysztof Kuziemski is the lead author and co-author of numerous studies, reports, and textbook chapters addressing various aspects of COPD.

The article is available at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-85388-2